Bloody Hell!!!

The last weeks of May turned out to be a bloodbath as "Hot Money" flowed out from the Philippines. The Mokong is currently experiencing massive paper losses.

Weekly Review 20130519

PSEI

The week started with the Index reaching all time highs at 7262.38 to 7392.2. Most have already disclosed their corporate earnings, providing legitimacy to the strength of the Index. However, with no other catalyst seen in the near future and with the start of the boring months (May to August), many took this opportunity to take profits.

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

WEB

The Mokong unloaded half as WEB may have entered consolidation.

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

LPZ

The Mokong had to cut-loss LPZ since both horizontal and uptrend supports were breached.

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

PF

The Mokong unloaded half of its position in PF due to uncertainty brought about by the news that SMC may be selling a portion of its stake in PF to support expansion in its other businesses. The last time SMC sold PF shares was at Php240/share to comply with the required public float.

HI

The Mokong took some profits in HI; still holding more than half.

FLI
The Mokong unloaded all of his FLI after the Index showed weakness. But as the week progressed, FLI bucked the trend of the Index closing at Php 2.22/share. #congratstoholders

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

PIP

The Mokong bought a small portion of PIP due to its inclusion in the Small Caps category of the MSCI. The stock has been consolidating since the start of this year and with this MSCI inclusion together with strong consumer sentiment, the stock would hopefully break its slumber.

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

ANS
The Mokong bought a small position in case the stock bounces from its horizontal and uptrend support.

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

Weekly Review 20130513

It was surprising that the index did not fill the gap created after the Investment Grade Rating upgrade by S&P. The culprit for index' resilience may be due to the strong Q1 earnings of most listed companies. Will we wait for August for the Gap to be filled?

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

WEB

After news that the freeze order on Ongpin's bank accounts were lifted, the Mokong bought WEB anticipating that jockeys would use this issue to pump the price. It has already been two consecutive trading days of gains. How far would they jack WEB?

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

HI

While there was a slight rally on EEI last week, HI did the opposite. It seems that someone using BPItrade was unloading HI forcing the stock to close at Php7.6xx/share. The Mokong took this opportunity to increase his position. The stock is at both horizontal and uptrend support.

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

RCB
After creating the Cup and Handle pattern, RCB is nicely moving within an uptrend channel. The Mokong bought back some RCB shares.

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

LPZ

LPZ moved sideways this week threatening to break support. #anxiousmoments

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

DMC: Sideways with an Upward Bias

After reaching its peak in May last year, DMC has been moving sideways for almost a year. 2012 earnings remain flat as lower prices for coal and nickel, and the rehab of SEM Calaca's other unit take their toll on the earnings. For 2013, the outlook for coal and nickel prices remain to be week, and any increase in the earnings of its electricity business will be offset by the lower earnings due to decreased ownership in Maynilad. However, with the growth of its real-estate and construction businesses, DMC may soon rejoin the bullishness of its fellow holding companies. Though price movement would be painfully slow, the Mokong bought DMC because of low downside risk. Hopefully its 2nd Quarter earnings would provide a positive surprise.

Net Income After Non-Contolling Interest, Php M
Business	2012	2011	Growth	2013 Earnings Outlook
Coal	1,739.00	2,379.00	-27%	Flat with an upward bias due to increased Coal Consumption of SCC's Power Plant
Nickel	341.00	917.00	-63%	Flat
Construction	1,220.00	1,117.00	9%	Positive Growth: PPP, SLTEC unit 2, SCC's Power Plant Expansion
Real-estate	2,182.00	1,795.00	22%	Positive Outlook for the Property Industry due to lower lending rates
Electricity	1,902.00	1,177.00	62%	Increased Generation due to completion of Power Plant Rehab
Water	2,264.00	2,195.00	3%	Decreased earnings due to divestment
Parent and Others	144.00	15.00	860%	Minimum impact to DMC's bottom line
Total	9,792.00	9,595.00	2%	2013 earnings will be flat with an upward bias

DMC's Boring Chart

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

COMPARISON OF HOLDING COMPANIES
(Data form Bloomberg)

Stock	Last Price	Market Cap, Php B	Report	PE	P/B	ROE
AEV	57	314.75	2013:Q1	12.67	3.44	27%
AGI	26.45	271.64	2012:A	19.45	3.18	16%
DMC	59.6	158.27	2012:A	16.15	3.91	24%
GTCAP	860	149.90	2012:A	19.43	2.75	14%
JGS	48.5	329.66	2012:A	24.37	2.12	9%
LTG	25.55	270.35	2012:A	28.08	4.91	17%
MPI	6.18	160.78	2013:Q1	23.77	1.91	8%
SM	1160	728.61	2013:Q1	27.58	3.84	14%
SMC	123	292.69	2013:Q1	15.63	1.21	8%

LPZ: Technicals Unite

Technical indicators show that LPZ may have bottomed out and may move sideways with an upward bias. Its subsidiaries ABS and ABSP have recently performed well  and hopefully, market attention would overflow to LPZ.

Technical Indicators

* Candle bounced at both Horizontal Support and 100 Moving Average Line

* RSI holding current levels

* Stochastic at oversold levels

* Immediate Resistance at Php7.5/share

Catalysts

* Earnings Sentiment  on its subsidiaries, ABS and ABSP, due to Elections

* GLO might infuse capital or would buyout LPZ to acquire Bayantel

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

PSEI: Super Gap!

The 2nd investment grade rating by S&P buoyed the index at 7215.35 creating a large vacuum  from 7108.28 to 7185.74. With "hot money" coming in, many may be enticed to assume that this could be a breakaway gap. However, to be on the safe side, always consider the possibility that this gap will be eventually filled since both RSI and STS are currently at overbought levels. Is it time to switch to laggard blue chips and second liners?

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

S&P Gives 2nd Investment Grade Rating!

The PSEI was trading in the red almost the whole morning but as the afternoon session kicked-in, the Index seemed to be in steroids. The rally this afternoon was fueled by our 2nd Investment Grade Rating by S&P.

Now that "hot money" will be surely flowing to the Philippine Market, which blue chip or second liner would you choose.

Before going further, take note that data was collected from the investment tables/guides for April 2013 of COL, ABCAP and ATR only. The Mokong has no knowledge on the credibility of these brokers. Stocks that have no rating for a particular broker were given a zero value (-100%). Also, closing prices of 2 May 2013 were used in the computation.

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

Caution: EDC, FGEN, FPH, PX and BLOOM have issues that may have not been factored in yet. 

Here is the complete list of the scanning: Click Me

Special thanks to those who provided the Mokong with the investment guides of their brokers. May the force be with you.

Can't Defeat the Game

The Mokong employed a cut-loss on LR and BLOOM due to sell-down of gaming stocks with the uncertainty in the new taxation ruling of BIR. When in doubt, pull out?

AGI           BEL           BLOOM           MCP